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维基百科，自由的百科全书
现代的气象预报可以帮助避免人身损失

天气预报是使用现代科学技术对未来某一地点大气的状态进行预测。人类自从千万年前就一直试图预测天气，但真正意义上的天气预报始于19世纪。今天的天气预报主要是使用收集大量的有关大气状态的数据（比如气温、湿度、风向和风速、气压等等），然后使用目前对大气过程的科学认识来预测未来空气如何变化。

天气预报最早完全依赖于人力对采集的气压、当前天气状况、天空状况等有限数据的研判，如今已经进化到利用计算机运算的数学模型来考虑更多的影响大气的因子。但是如何找到最好的预报模型仍然需要人力，比如对天气类型的识别、对遥相关的理解、对模式效能和模式偏差的评估等等。众多的因素（如大气的混沌理论、求解描述大气的众多方程所需的巨大计算能力的限制，测量大气数据过程中的误差、对大气过程仍然不够完善的理解）使得预报的时间越长，结果越差。集合预报结果能尽可能的帮助减小预报的误差和改进预报的结果。

天气预报被用于很多地方。对恶劣天气的提前警报可以保护人民的生命和财产。气温和降水的预报对农业生产很重要，也同样对农产品大宗商品市场的交易者重要。共用事业公司也需要根据对气温的预测来估计将来的用户需求的大小（比如供暖）。人们也每天根据天气预报来决定合适穿戴。人们也利用天气预报来计划户外活动，以避免被大雨，大雪，寒风等影响。

历史

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1887年12月10日的欧洲气象图

千万年前，人类就开始试图预测天气。公元前650年左右，巴比伦人就使用云的类型和占星术来预测天气。[1] 在大约公元前340年亚里士多德在他的《天象论》中第一次系统的整理和综合了各种气象知识。[2][3]再后来，他的学生泰奧弗拉斯托斯也收集天气谚语和天气预兆编纂成书《天气跡兆》。[2][4] 中国早在公元前14世纪的殷商时代就已有对天气现象的历史记录。其后，诸如天气现象和气候情况、天气谚语和天气经验、各种天气现象成因的探索、有关二十四节气和七十二候的论说，以及观测仪器的设计等在中国的史料中也都有极丰富的记载。[2]印度天文学家也在公元前很早就发展出天气预测的方法。[5] In 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya's Nabatean Agriculture discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the lunar phases; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds.[6]

Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. For example, it might be observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather. This experience accumulated over the generations to produce weather lore. However, not all of these predictions prove reliable, and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing.[7]

直到1835年电报发明以后，天气预报才真正走向现代。[8] Before this time, it was not widely practicable to transport information about the current state of the weather any faster than a steam train (and the train also was a very new technology at that time). By the late 1840s, the telegraph allowed reports of weather conditions from a wide area to be received almost instantaneously,[9] allowing forecasts to be made from knowledge of weather conditions further upwind. 现代天气预报的诞生以及被提升为一门科学，主要归功于两个人，弗朗西斯‧蒲福 (remembered chiefly for the 蒲福风级)和他的导师罗伯特·菲茨罗伊 (developer of the Fitzroy barometer). Both were influential men in British naval and governmental circles, and though ridiculed in the press at the time, their work gained scientific credence, was accepted by the Royal Navy, and formed the basis for all of today's weather forecasting knowledge.[10] To convey information accurately, it became necessary to have a standard vocabulary describing clouds; this was achieved by means of a series of classifications and, in the 1890s, by pictorial cloud atlases.

气象科学在20世纪得到了极大的发展。The possibility of numerical weather prediction was proposed by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922,[11] though computers did not exist to complete the vast number of calculations required to produce a forecast before the event had occurred. 数学家约翰·冯·诺伊曼领导的小组第一个利用计算机做出了天气预报; von Neumann publishing the paper Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation in 1950.[12] 得益于可编程电子计算机的发展，数值天气预报业务于1955年开始正式开展。[13]

In the United States, the first public radio forecasts were made in 1925 by Edward B. "E.B." Rideout, on WEEI, the Edison Electric Illuminating station in Boston.[14] Rideout came from the 美国国家气象局, as did WBZ weather forecaster G. Harold Noyes in 1931. Television forecasts followed with Jimmie Fidler in Cincinnati in 1940 or 1947 on the DuMont Television Network.[14][15] The Weather Channel is a 24-hour cable network that began broadcasting in May 1982.

中国人至少在前300年左右有进行天气预报的纪录。

古代天气预报主要是依靠一定的天气现象，比如人们观察到晚霞之后往往有好天气。这样的观察积累多了形成了天氣諺語。不过许多这些谚语后来被证明是不正确的。

从17世纪开始科学家开始使用科学仪器（比如气压表）来测量天气状态，并使用这些数据来做天气预报。但很长时间里人们只能使用当地的气象数据来做天气预报，因为当时人们无法快速地将数据传递到远处。1837年电报被发明后人们才能够使用大面积的气象数据来做天气预报。

20世纪气象学发展迅速。人类对大气过程的了解也越来越明确。1970年代数字天气预测随电脑硬件发展出现并且发展迅速，今天成为天气预报最主要的方式。

模式如何生成预报

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数字天气预报模式给出的500百帕位势高度预测结果
主条目：数值天气预报

数字天气预报的基本原理是采样给定时刻的流体状态输入到一系列流体力学和热力学方程中求解未来时刻的流体状态。The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated 气象站 at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. 世界气象组织 acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide. Stations either report hourly in 航空例行天气报告（METAR），[16] or every six hours in 地面天气报告（SYNOP）。[17] Sites launch 无线电探空仪, which rise through the depth of the 对流层 and well into the 平流层。[18] 没有常规气象资料的区域可以用气象卫星的数据来弥补。[19][20][21] Compared with similar data from radiosondes, the satellite data has the advantage of global coverage, however at a lower accuracy and resolution.[22] Meteorological radar provide information on precipitation location and intensity, which can be used to estimate precipitation accumulations over time.[23] 另外，可以用脉冲多普勒气象雷达来确定风速和风向。[24]

现代天气预报帮助及时地遣散人群，减少可能的人员和财产损失

Commerce provides 飞行员报告 along aircraft routes,[25] and ship reports along shipping routes. Research flights using reconnaissance aircraft fly in and around weather systems of interest such as tropical cyclones.[26][27] Reconnaissance aircraft are also flown over the open oceans during the cold season into systems which cause significant uncertainty in forecast guidance, or are expected to be of high impact 3–7 days into the future over the downstream continent.[28]

Models are initialized using this observed data. The irregularly spaced observations are processed by data assimilation and objective analysis methods, which perform quality control and obtain values at locations usable by the model's mathematical algorithms (usually an evenly spaced grid). The data are then used in the model as the starting point for a forecast.[29] Commonly, the set of equations used to predict the known as the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere are called primitive equations. These equations are initialized from the analysis data and rates of change are determined. The rates of change predict the state of the atmosphere a short time into the future. The equations are then applied to this new atmospheric state to find new rates of change, and these new rates of change predict the atmosphere at a yet further time into the future. This time stepping procedure is continually repeated until the solution reaches the desired forecast time. The length of the time step is related to the distance between the points on the computational grid. Time steps for global climate models may be on the order of tens of minutes, while time steps for regional models may be a few seconds to a few minutes.

Essentially, a model is a computer program that produces meteorological information for future times at given locations and altitudes. Within any modern model is a set of equations, known as the primitive equations, used to predict the future state of the atmosphere.[30] These equations—along with the ideal gas law—are used to evolve the 密度, 气压, and potential temperature 标量场s and the 速度 矢量场 of the atmosphere through time. Additional transport equations for pollutants and other aerosols are included in some primitive-equation mesoscale models as well.[31] The equations used are 非线性偏微分方程组 which are impossible to solve exactly through analytical methods,[32] with the exception of a few idealized cases.[33] Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods: some global models use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and 差分法finite difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models and other global models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions.[32]

These equations are initialized from the analysis data and rates of change are determined. These rates of change predict the state of the atmosphere a short time into the future; the time increment for this prediction is called a time step. The equations are then applied to this new atmospheric state to find new rates of change, and these new rates of change predict the atmosphere at a yet further time step into the future. This time stepping is repeated until the solution reaches the desired forecast time. The length of the time step chosen within the model is related to the distance between the points on the computational grid, and is chosen to maintain numerical stability.[34] Time steps for global models are on the order of tens of minutes,[35] while time steps for regional models are between one and four minutes.[36] The global models are run at varying times into the future. The UKMET Unified Model is run six days into the future,[37] the 欧洲中期天气预报中心的模式可以播报将来10天的结果，[38]而Environmental Modeling Center的Global Forecast System model模式可以预报将来16天的天气。[39] The visual output produced by a model solution is known as a prognostic chart, or prog.[40] The raw output is often modified before being presented as the forecast. This can be in the form of statistical techniques to remove known biases in the model, or of adjustment to take into account consensus among other numerical weather forecasts.[41] MOS or model output statistics is a technique used to interpret numerical model output and produce site-specific guidance. This guidance is presented in coded numerical form, and can be obtained for nearly all National Weather Service reporting stations in the United States. As proposed by 爱德华·诺顿·洛伦茨 in 1963, long range forecasts, those made at a range of two weeks or more, are impossible to definitively predict the state of the atmosphere, owing to the chaotic nature of the 流体力学 equations involved. Extremely small errors in the initial input, such as temperatures and winds, within numerical models doubles every five days.[42]

现代天气预报

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现代天气预报有五个组成部分：

  • 收集数据
  • 数据同化
  • 数据天气预报
  • 输出处理
  • 展示

收集数据

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最传统的数据是在地面或海面上通过专业人员、爱好者、自动气象站或者浮标收集的气压、气温、风速、风向、湿度等数据。世界气象组织协调这些数据采集的时间，并制定标准。这些测量分每小时一次（METAR）或者每六小时一次（SYNOP）。

使用气象气球气象学家还可以收集上空的气温、湿度、风值。气象气球可以一直上升到对流层顶。


气象卫星的 数据越来越重要。气象卫星可以采集全世界的数据。它们的可见光照片可以帮助气象学家来检视云的发展。它们的红外线数据可以用来收集地面和云顶的温度。通过 监视云的发展可以收集云的边缘的风速和风向。不过由于气象卫星的精确度和分辨率还不够好，因此地面数据依然非常重要。

气象雷达可以提供降水地区和强度的信息。多普勒雷达还可以确定风速和风向。

数据同化

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在数据同化的过程中被采集的数据与用来做预报的数字模型结合在一起来产生气象分析。其结果是目前大气状态的最好估计，它是一个三维的温度、湿度、气压和风速、风向的表示。

数据天气预报

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数字天气预报是使用电脑来模拟大气。它使用数据同化的结果作为其出发点，按照今天物理学和流体力学的结果来计算大气随时间的变化。由于流体力学的方程组非常复杂，因此只有使用超级计算机才能够进行数字天气预报。这个模型计算的输出是天气预报的基础。

输出处理

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模型计算的原始输出一般要经过加工处理后才能成为天气预报。这些处理包括使用统计学的原理来消除已知的模型中的偏差，或者参考其它模型计算结果进行调整。

过 去气象学家必须自己做处理工作，今天24小时以上的天气预报主要是使用多种不同模型后对其结果进行综合。气象学家还必须分析预报出来的模型数据来使最终用 户能够理解它。此外天气预报的模型一般分辨率不是特别高。当地的气象学家还必须通过当地的经验在涉及地区性的影响，使得当地的天气预报更加精确。不过随着 天气预报模型的不断精密化这个工作量越来越小了。

展示

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对于最终用户来说天气预报的展示是整个过程中最重要的。只有知道最终用户需要什么信息、如何才能将这些信息易懂地传达给最终用户才能完成这个任务。

公众

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报纸中的天气预报，图中为《观察者》和《世界报》的天气预报栏

公众是天气预报的一个主要用户。不但天气灾害如冰雹、飓风等等对公众生活有巨大的影响和威胁，即使日常生活、节假日安排、穿衣等等也要依靠天气预报。电视、广播、报纸、因特网中均有对公众的天气预报服务。

航空

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天气对航空的影响非常大。几乎所有的飞机场均有自己的气象站。在飞机起飞前机组人员要获得整个的飞行路线上的天气情况以及天气预报数据。

电力系统

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天气对用电量的影响非常大，因此电力公司通过天气预报预测用电量。

其它私营企业

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其它私人企业也可以通过天气预报来调整它们的需求和供给。比如超市在热天可以提供更多的饮料，等等。

公众使用

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恶劣天气警报和指导

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现代天气预报的一个主要部分就是恶劣天气警报和指导。当国家天气服务机构预计到恶劣天气有可能来临时，就会向公众发布警告和指导，以保护大众生命和财产。[43]常见的恶劣天气警报和指导有暴风雨警报（英语：Severe thunderstorm warning）和龙卷风警报（英语：tornado warning），还有暴风雨警告（英语：Severe thunderstorm watch）和龙卷风警告（英语：tornado watch）。再比如针对冬季天气、大风、洪水、台风、大雾等天气的指导。[44]警报和指导一般通过警报系统（比如紧急警报广播）在多种媒体上（比如广播）以发布。[45]

空中交通

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Ash cloud from the 2008 eruption of Chaitén volcano stretching across Patagonia from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean
参见：Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Because the aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off.[46] Turbulence and icing are also significant in-flight hazards.[47] Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft because of severe turbulence due to their updrafts and outflow boundaries,[48] icing due to the heavy precipitation, as well as large hail, strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause severe damage to an aircraft in flight.[49] Volcanic ash is also a significant problem for aviation, as aircraft can lose engine power within ash clouds.[50] On a day to day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency.[51] Aircrews are briefed prior to takeoff on the conditions to expect en route and at their destination.[52] Additionally, airports often change which runway is being used to take advantage of a headwind. This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential crosswinds.[53]

海洋

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Commercial and recreational use of waterways can be limited significantly by wind direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides, and precipitation. These factors can each influence the safety of marine transit. Consequently, a variety of codes have been established to efficiently transmit detailed marine weather forecasts to vessel pilots via radio, for example the MAFOR (marine forecast).[54] Typical weather forecasts can be received at sea through the use of RTTY, Navtex and Radiofax.

农业

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Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. For example, drying hay is only feasible in dry weather. Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton, wheat,[55] and corn crops. While corn crops can be ruined by drought, their dried remains can be used as a cattle feed substitute in the form of silage.[56] Frosts and freezes play havoc with crops both during the spring and fall. For example, peach trees in full bloom can have their potential peach crop decimated by a spring freeze.[57] Orange groves can suffer significant damage during frosts and freezes, regardless of their timing.[58]

林业

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Weather forecasting of wind, precipitations and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires. Different indices, like the Forest fire weather index and the Haines Index, have been developed to predict the areas more at risk to experience fire from natural or human causes. Conditions for the development of harmful insects can be predicted by forecasting the evolution of weather, too.

共用事业

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An air handling unit is used for the heating and cooling of air in a central location (click on image for legend).
主条目：Degree day

Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating (heating degree day) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on a daily average temperature of 65 °F（18 °C）. Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days.[59] In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating.[60] Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot weather.[61] By anticipating a surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of brownouts and blackouts.[62]

私人公司

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Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits or avoid large losses.[63] For example, supermarket chains may change the stocks on their shelves in anticipation of different consumer spending habits in different weather conditions. Weather forecasts can be used to invest in the commodity market, such as futures in oranges, corn, soybeans, and oil.[64]

军事应用

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美国军队

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美国海军

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Emblem of JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Similarly to the private sector, military weather forecasters present weather conditions to the war fighter community. Military weather forecasters provide pre-flight and in-flight weather briefs to pilots and provide real time resource protection services for military installations. Naval forecasters cover the waters and ship weather forecasts. The United States Navy provides a special service to both themselves and the rest of the federal government by issuing forecasts for tropical cyclone across the Pacific and Indian Oceans through their Joint Typhoon Warning Center.[65]

美国空军

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Within the United States, Air Force Weather provides weather forecasting for the Air Force and the Army. Air Force forecasters cover air operations in both wartime and peacetime operations and provide Army support;[66] United States Coast Guard marine science technicians provide ship forecasts for ice breakers and other various operations within their realm;[67] and Marine forecasters provide support for ground- and air-based United States Marine Corps operations.[68] All four military branches take their initial enlisted meteorology technical training at Keesler Air Force Base.[69] Military and civilian forecasters actively cooperate in analyzing, creating and critiquing weather forecast products.

相關條目

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参考文献

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