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使用者:Towerman/translation/天氣預報

維基百科，自由的百科全書
現代的氣象預報可以幫助避免人身損失

天氣預報是使用現代科學技術對未來某一地點大氣的狀態進行預測。人類自從千萬年前就一直試圖預測天氣，但真正意義上的天氣預報始於19世紀。今天的天氣預報主要是使用收集大量的有關大氣狀態的數據（比如氣溫、濕度、風向和風速、氣壓等等），然後使用目前對大氣過程的科學認識來預測未來空氣如何變化。

天氣預報最早完全依賴於人力對採集的氣壓、當前天氣狀況、天空狀況等有限數據的研判，如今已經進化到利用計算機運算的數學模型來考慮更多的影響大氣的因子。但是如何找到最好的預報模型仍然需要人力，比如對天氣類型的識別、對遙相關的理解、對模式效能和模式偏差的評估等等。眾多的因素（如大氣的混沌理論、求解描述大氣的眾多方程所需的巨大計算能力的限制，測量大氣數據過程中的誤差、對大氣過程仍然不夠完善的理解）使得預報的時間越長，結果越差。集合預報結果能儘可能的幫助減小預報的誤差和改進預報的結果。

天氣預報被用於很多地方。對惡劣天氣的提前警報可以保護人民的生命和財產。氣溫和降水的預報對農業生產很重要，也同樣對農產品大宗商品市場的交易者重要。共用事業公司也需要根據對氣溫的預測來估計將來的用戶需求的大小（比如供暖）。人們也每天根據天氣預報來決定合適穿戴。人們也利用天氣預報來計劃戶外活動，以避免被大雨，大雪，寒風等影響。

歷史

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1887年12月10日的歐洲氣象圖

千萬年前，人類就開始試圖預測天氣。公元前650年左右，巴比倫人就使用雲的類型和占星術來預測天氣。[1] 在大約公元前340年亞里士多德在他的《天象論》中第一次系統的整理和綜合了各種氣象知識。[2][3]再後來，他的學生泰奧弗拉斯托斯也收集天氣諺語和天氣預兆編纂成書《天氣跡兆》。[2][4] 中國早在公元前14世紀的殷商時代就已有對天氣現象的歷史記錄。其後，諸如天氣現象和氣候情況、天氣諺語和天氣經驗、各種天氣現象成因的探索、有關二十四節氣和七十二候的論說，以及觀測儀器的設計等在中國的史料中也都有極豐富的記載。[2]印度天文學家也在公元前很早就發展出天氣預測的方法。[5] In 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya's Nabatean Agriculture discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the lunar phases; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds.[6]

Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. For example, it might be observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather. This experience accumulated over the generations to produce weather lore. However, not all of these predictions prove reliable, and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing.[7]

直到1835年電報發明以後，天氣預報才真正走向現代。[8] Before this time, it was not widely practicable to transport information about the current state of the weather any faster than a steam train (and the train also was a very new technology at that time). By the late 1840s, the telegraph allowed reports of weather conditions from a wide area to be received almost instantaneously,[9] allowing forecasts to be made from knowledge of weather conditions further upwind. 現代天氣預報的誕生以及被提升為一門科學，主要歸功於兩個人，弗朗西斯‧蒲福 (remembered chiefly for the 蒲福風級)和他的導師羅伯特·菲茨羅伊 (developer of the Fitzroy barometer). Both were influential men in British naval and governmental circles, and though ridiculed in the press at the time, their work gained scientific credence, was accepted by the Royal Navy, and formed the basis for all of today's weather forecasting knowledge.[10] To convey information accurately, it became necessary to have a standard vocabulary describing clouds; this was achieved by means of a series of classifications and, in the 1890s, by pictorial cloud atlases.

氣象科學在20世紀得到了極大的發展。The possibility of numerical weather prediction was proposed by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922,[11] though computers did not exist to complete the vast number of calculations required to produce a forecast before the event had occurred. 數學家約翰·馮·諾伊曼領導的小組第一個利用計算機做出了天氣預報; von Neumann publishing the paper Numerical Integration of the Barotropic Vorticity Equation in 1950.[12] 得益於可編程電子計算機的發展，數值天氣預報業務於1955年開始正式開展。[13]

In the United States, the first public radio forecasts were made in 1925 by Edward B. "E.B." Rideout, on WEEI, the Edison Electric Illuminating station in Boston.[14] Rideout came from the 美國國家氣象局, as did WBZ weather forecaster G. Harold Noyes in 1931. Television forecasts followed with Jimmie Fidler in Cincinnati in 1940 or 1947 on the DuMont Television Network.[14][15] The Weather Channel is a 24-hour cable network that began broadcasting in May 1982.

中國人至少在前300年左右有進行天氣預報的紀錄。

古代天氣預報主要是依靠一定的天氣現象，比如人們觀察到晚霞之後往往有好天氣。這樣的觀察積累多了形成了天氣諺語。不過許多這些諺語後來被證明是不正確的。

從17世紀開始科學家開始使用科學儀器（比如氣壓表）來測量天氣狀態，並使用這些數據來做天氣預報。但很長時間裡人們只能使用當地的氣象數據來做天氣預報，因為當時人們無法快速地將數據傳遞到遠處。1837年電報被發明後人們才能夠使用大面積的氣象數據來做天氣預報。

20世紀氣象學發展迅速。人類對大氣過程的了解也越來越明確。1970年代數字天氣預測隨電腦硬件發展出現並且發展迅速，今天成為天氣預報最主要的方式。

模式如何生成預報

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數字天氣預報模式給出的500百帕位勢高度預測結果
主條目：數值天氣預報

數字天氣預報的基本原理是採樣給定時刻的流體狀態輸入到一系列流體力學和熱力學方程中求解未來時刻的流體狀態。The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated 氣象站 at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. 世界氣象組織 acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide. Stations either report hourly in 航空例行天氣報告（METAR），[16] or every six hours in 地面天氣報告（SYNOP）。[17] Sites launch 無線電探空儀, which rise through the depth of the 對流層 and well into the 平流層。[18] 沒有常規氣象資料的區域可以用氣象衛星的數據來彌補。[19][20][21] Compared with similar data from radiosondes, the satellite data has the advantage of global coverage, however at a lower accuracy and resolution.[22] Meteorological radar provide information on precipitation location and intensity, which can be used to estimate precipitation accumulations over time.[23] 另外，可以用脈衝多普勒氣象雷達來確定風速和風向。[24]

現代天氣預報幫助及時地遣散人群，減少可能的人員和財產損失

Commerce provides 飛行員報告 along aircraft routes,[25] and ship reports along shipping routes. Research flights using reconnaissance aircraft fly in and around weather systems of interest such as tropical cyclones.[26][27] Reconnaissance aircraft are also flown over the open oceans during the cold season into systems which cause significant uncertainty in forecast guidance, or are expected to be of high impact 3–7 days into the future over the downstream continent.[28]

Models are initialized using this observed data. The irregularly spaced observations are processed by data assimilation and objective analysis methods, which perform quality control and obtain values at locations usable by the model's mathematical algorithms (usually an evenly spaced grid). The data are then used in the model as the starting point for a forecast.[29] Commonly, the set of equations used to predict the known as the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere are called primitive equations. These equations are initialized from the analysis data and rates of change are determined. The rates of change predict the state of the atmosphere a short time into the future. The equations are then applied to this new atmospheric state to find new rates of change, and these new rates of change predict the atmosphere at a yet further time into the future. This time stepping procedure is continually repeated until the solution reaches the desired forecast time. The length of the time step is related to the distance between the points on the computational grid. Time steps for global climate models may be on the order of tens of minutes, while time steps for regional models may be a few seconds to a few minutes.

Essentially, a model is a computer program that produces meteorological information for future times at given locations and altitudes. Within any modern model is a set of equations, known as the primitive equations, used to predict the future state of the atmosphere.[30] These equations—along with the ideal gas law—are used to evolve the 密度, 氣壓, and potential temperature 標量場s and the 速度 矢量場 of the atmosphere through time. Additional transport equations for pollutants and other aerosols are included in some primitive-equation mesoscale models as well.[31] The equations used are 非線性偏微分方程組 which are impossible to solve exactly through analytical methods,[32] with the exception of a few idealized cases.[33] Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods: some global models use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and 差分法finite difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models and other global models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions.[32]

These equations are initialized from the analysis data and rates of change are determined. These rates of change predict the state of the atmosphere a short time into the future; the time increment for this prediction is called a time step. The equations are then applied to this new atmospheric state to find new rates of change, and these new rates of change predict the atmosphere at a yet further time step into the future. This time stepping is repeated until the solution reaches the desired forecast time. The length of the time step chosen within the model is related to the distance between the points on the computational grid, and is chosen to maintain numerical stability.[34] Time steps for global models are on the order of tens of minutes,[35] while time steps for regional models are between one and four minutes.[36] The global models are run at varying times into the future. The UKMET Unified Model is run six days into the future,[37] the 歐洲中期天氣預報中心的模式可以播報將來10天的結果，[38]而Environmental Modeling Center的Global Forecast System model模式可以預報將來16天的天氣。[39] The visual output produced by a model solution is known as a prognostic chart, or prog.[40] The raw output is often modified before being presented as the forecast. This can be in the form of statistical techniques to remove known biases in the model, or of adjustment to take into account consensus among other numerical weather forecasts.[41] MOS or model output statistics is a technique used to interpret numerical model output and produce site-specific guidance. This guidance is presented in coded numerical form, and can be obtained for nearly all National Weather Service reporting stations in the United States. As proposed by 愛德華·諾頓·洛倫茨 in 1963, long range forecasts, those made at a range of two weeks or more, are impossible to definitively predict the state of the atmosphere, owing to the chaotic nature of the 流體力學 equations involved. Extremely small errors in the initial input, such as temperatures and winds, within numerical models doubles every five days.[42]

現代天氣預報

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現代天氣預報有五個組成部分：

  • 收集數據
  • 數據同化
  • 數據天氣預報
  • 輸出處理
  • 展示

收集數據

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最傳統的數據是在地面或海面上通過專業人員、愛好者、自動氣象站或者浮標收集的氣壓、氣溫、風速、風向、濕度等數據。世界氣象組織協調這些數據採集的時間，並制定標準。這些測量分每小時一次（METAR）或者每六小時一次（SYNOP）。

使用氣象氣球氣象學家還可以收集上空的氣溫、濕度、風值。氣象氣球可以一直上升到對流層頂。


氣象衛星的 數據越來越重要。氣象衛星可以採集全世界的數據。它們的可見光照片可以幫助氣象學家來檢視雲的發展。它們的紅外線數據可以用來收集地面和雲頂的溫度。通過 監視雲的發展可以收集雲的邊緣的風速和風向。不過由於氣象衛星的精確度和分辨率還不夠好，因此地面數據依然非常重要。

氣象雷達可以提供降水地區和強度的信息。多普勒雷達還可以確定風速和風向。

數據同化

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在數據同化的過程中被採集的數據與用來做預報的數字模型結合在一起來產生氣象分析。其結果是目前大氣狀態的最好估計，它是一個三維的溫度、濕度、氣壓和風速、風向的表示。

數據天氣預報

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數字天氣預報是使用電腦來模擬大氣。它使用數據同化的結果作為其出發點，按照今天物理學和流體力學的結果來計算大氣隨時間的變化。由於流體力學的方程組非常複雜，因此只有使用超級計算機才能夠進行數字天氣預報。這個模型計算的輸出是天氣預報的基礎。

輸出處理

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模型計算的原始輸出一般要經過加工處理後才能成為天氣預報。這些處理包括使用統計學的原理來消除已知的模型中的偏差，或者參考其它模型計算結果進行調整。

過 去氣象學家必須自己做處理工作，今天24小時以上的天氣預報主要是使用多種不同模型後對其結果進行綜合。氣象學家還必須分析預報出來的模型數據來使最終用 戶能夠理解它。此外天氣預報的模型一般分辨率不是特別高。當地的氣象學家還必須通過當地的經驗在涉及地區性的影響，使得當地的天氣預報更加精確。不過隨着 天氣預報模型的不斷精密化這個工作量越來越小了。

展示

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對於最終用戶來說天氣預報的展示是整個過程中最重要的。只有知道最終用戶需要什麼信息、如何才能將這些信息易懂地傳達給最終用戶才能完成這個任務。

公眾

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報紙中的天氣預報，圖中為《觀察者》和《世界報》的天氣預報欄

公眾是天氣預報的一個主要用戶。不但天氣災害如冰雹、颶風等等對公眾生活有巨大的影響和威脅，即使日常生活、節假日安排、穿衣等等也要依靠天氣預報。電視、廣播、報紙、因特網中均有對公眾的天氣預報服務。

航空

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天氣對航空的影響非常大。幾乎所有的飛機場均有自己的氣象站。在飛機起飛前機組人員要獲得整個的飛行路線上的天氣情況以及天氣預報數據。

電力系統

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天氣對用電量的影響非常大，因此電力公司通過天氣預報預測用電量。

其它私營企業

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其它私人企業也可以通過天氣預報來調整它們的需求和供給。比如超市在熱天可以提供更多的飲料，等等。

公眾使用

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惡劣天氣警報和指導

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現代天氣預報的一個主要部分就是惡劣天氣警報和指導。當國家天氣服務機構預計到惡劣天氣有可能來臨時，就會向公眾發布警告和指導，以保護大眾生命和財產。[43]常見的惡劣天氣警報和指導有暴風雨警報（英語：Severe thunderstorm warning）和龍捲風警報（英語：tornado warning），還有暴風雨警告（英語：Severe thunderstorm watch）和龍捲風警告（英語：tornado watch）。再比如針對冬季天氣、大風、洪水、颱風、大霧等天氣的指導。[44]警報和指導一般通過警報系統（比如緊急警報廣播）在多種媒體上（比如廣播）以發布。[45]

空中交通

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Ash cloud from the 2008 eruption of Chaitén volcano stretching across Patagonia from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean
參見：Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Because the aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off.[46] Turbulence and icing are also significant in-flight hazards.[47] Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft because of severe turbulence due to their updrafts and outflow boundaries,[48] icing due to the heavy precipitation, as well as large hail, strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause severe damage to an aircraft in flight.[49] Volcanic ash is also a significant problem for aviation, as aircraft can lose engine power within ash clouds.[50] On a day to day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency.[51] Aircrews are briefed prior to takeoff on the conditions to expect en route and at their destination.[52] Additionally, airports often change which runway is being used to take advantage of a headwind. This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential crosswinds.[53]

海洋

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Commercial and recreational use of waterways can be limited significantly by wind direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides, and precipitation. These factors can each influence the safety of marine transit. Consequently, a variety of codes have been established to efficiently transmit detailed marine weather forecasts to vessel pilots via radio, for example the MAFOR (marine forecast).[54] Typical weather forecasts can be received at sea through the use of RTTY, Navtex and Radiofax.

農業

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Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. For example, drying hay is only feasible in dry weather. Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton, wheat,[55] and corn crops. While corn crops can be ruined by drought, their dried remains can be used as a cattle feed substitute in the form of silage.[56] Frosts and freezes play havoc with crops both during the spring and fall. For example, peach trees in full bloom can have their potential peach crop decimated by a spring freeze.[57] Orange groves can suffer significant damage during frosts and freezes, regardless of their timing.[58]

林業

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Weather forecasting of wind, precipitations and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires. Different indices, like the Forest fire weather index and the Haines Index, have been developed to predict the areas more at risk to experience fire from natural or human causes. Conditions for the development of harmful insects can be predicted by forecasting the evolution of weather, too.

共用事業

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An air handling unit is used for the heating and cooling of air in a central location (click on image for legend).
主條目：Degree day

Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating (heating degree day) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on a daily average temperature of 65 °F（18 °C）. Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days.[59] In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating.[60] Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot weather.[61] By anticipating a surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of brownouts and blackouts.[62]

私人公司

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Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits or avoid large losses.[63] For example, supermarket chains may change the stocks on their shelves in anticipation of different consumer spending habits in different weather conditions. Weather forecasts can be used to invest in the commodity market, such as futures in oranges, corn, soybeans, and oil.[64]

軍事應用

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美國軍隊

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美國海軍

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Emblem of JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Similarly to the private sector, military weather forecasters present weather conditions to the war fighter community. Military weather forecasters provide pre-flight and in-flight weather briefs to pilots and provide real time resource protection services for military installations. Naval forecasters cover the waters and ship weather forecasts. The United States Navy provides a special service to both themselves and the rest of the federal government by issuing forecasts for tropical cyclone across the Pacific and Indian Oceans through their Joint Typhoon Warning Center.[65]

美國空軍

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Within the United States, Air Force Weather provides weather forecasting for the Air Force and the Army. Air Force forecasters cover air operations in both wartime and peacetime operations and provide Army support;[66] United States Coast Guard marine science technicians provide ship forecasts for ice breakers and other various operations within their realm;[67] and Marine forecasters provide support for ground- and air-based United States Marine Corps operations.[68] All four military branches take their initial enlisted meteorology technical training at Keesler Air Force Base.[69] Military and civilian forecasters actively cooperate in analyzing, creating and critiquing weather forecast products.

相關條目

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參考文獻

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